TAIL.
Receipts, not vibes.
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Receipts, not vibes.
Receipts, not vibes.
OpenCloses 16 Sep 2026
62¢
YES · last on kalshi
6¢cross-venue spread · kalshi 62¢ vs polymarket 56¢
| Holder | Calib | Side | Size | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4f2a…e91dpolymarketunclaimed | 0.71 | YES | 15,500 | 55.4¢ |
| @nqwizardkalshi | 0.68 | YES | 3,500 | 57.2¢ |
| @peg_watcherpolymarket | 0.64 | YES | 2,100 | 52.9¢ |
| @cpi_hawkkalshi | 0.62 | NO | 4,200 | 41¢ |
| @fed_dot_fadekalshi | 0.57 | YES | 750 | 60¢ |
Calibration is the caller’s 30-day figure across every market (§7), not a score for this one — a holder can be well calibrated and wrong here. Sizes are resting positions, not results. How the numbers are made.