TAIL.
Receipts, not vibes.
sportsSample data
Will France win the 2026 World Cup?
Resolved YESResolved 12 Jul 2026
97¢
YES · last on polymarket
1¢cross-venue spread · kalshi 98¢ vs polymarket 97¢
Flow
Last fills · UTC- 11 Jul 21:150x4f2a…e91dpolymarketSold YES8,000 @ 94¢
- 1 Jul 18:55@octanekalshiBought YES5,600 @ 45¢
- 23 Jun 20:40@rainmakerpolymarketBought NO4,100 @ 71¢
- 14 Jun 09:250x4f2a…e91dpolymarketBought YES24,000 @ 19¢
Holders
By calibration · 30D| Holder | Calib | Side | Size | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4f2a…e91dpolymarketunclaimed | 0.71 | YES | 16,000 | 19¢ |
| @rainmakerpolymarket | 0.55 | NO | 4,100 | 71¢ |
| @octanekalshi | 0.54 | YES | 5,600 | 45¢ |
Calibration is the caller’s 30-day figure across every market (§7), not a score for this one — a holder can be well calibrated and wrong here. Sizes are resting positions, not results. How the numbers are made.